African mining circle March 20 news: According to Reuters, the situation in eastern Congo (Gold) continues to deteriorate, the world's third largest tin mine - Bisie tin mine because of the rebel "M23 movement" was forced to stop production, causing global tin prices to shock. This incident not only exposed the deep vulnerability of the resource supply chain, but also highlighted the impact of geopolitical conflicts on strategic minerals.
The Bisi mine, operated by Canadian company Alphamin Resources, will produce 17,300 tonnes of tin concentrate in 2024, or 6 per cent of global supply. On March 13, Alphamin announced the withdrawal of all non-essential personnel due to security risks, leaving only the maintenance team in place. The mine was originally planned to increase production to 20,000 tons by 2025, and the shutdown will directly lead to a widening global supply gap. After the announcement, the price of three-month tin on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose 11.5% in a single day to exceed $37,000 / ton, a new high in nearly three years.
The main contract of Shanghai tin futures in China rose by the daily limit, and the spot price rose by 8.74% in a single day. China, as the main importer of Bixi mine (imports accounted for more than 20% in 2024), smelters are facing raw material shortage pressure, and some enterprises' processing profits have fallen to historic lows. The M23 rebels have advanced into the Walikale district of North Kivu province where the mine is located (only 125 km from the mine), which is not only the core of tin mines, accounting for more than 90% of Congo's tin production, but also a strategic location for tantalum, tungsten and coltan. Although the army claims to have repelled the rebel advance, the M23's recent unilateral withdrawal from the peace talks suggests that the conflict may be prolonged. The ITSCi, part of the International Tin Association (ITA), has suspended supervision of artisanal mines in North Kivu for safety reasons, leaving more than 3,000 tonnes of unofficial tin production per month in doubt. The market is concerned that tin ore from conflict zones could be smuggled into global supply chains, repeating the crisis of the "conflict minerals" label. Industry analysts warn that tens of thousands of tons of "dark flow tin" may flood the international market through grey channels if artisanal mining activities in war zones are unregulated. The risk has already had a ripple effect: the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo is suing Apple subsidiaries in France and Belgium for "supply chain laundering of conflict minerals." Myanmar's Wa tin mine will have to wait until the second half of 2025 to resume production, while Indonesia's policy of restricting primary tin exports could further drive up costs. Analysts expect that if the Bisi mine continues to stop production until the end of the year, the global tin supply gap in 2025 or expand to 14,000 tons. At the same time, the US is pushing for the Democratic Republic of Congo to exchange minerals for military aid, potentially exacerbating resource nationalism and the game of "de-sinicisation" of supply chains. "This incident is a typical epitome of the geopolitical politicisation of resources." Guosen Futures analyst Gu Fengda pointed out that the global tin supply chain is facing a "triple shock" : geopolitical conflict, trade protectionism and tighter ESG regulation. The International Tin Association has called for a more transparent traceability system for minerals, while Chinese companies need to accelerate diversification of supply channels.
